Navigating Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz 2026: Oil Sector Exposure and Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Conflict in the Middle East has prompted rapid, substantial changes in global trade and supply chain dynamics. About 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) typically travels through the strait, but data from Dun & Bradstreet shows far-reaching effects that extend well beyond the energy sector.
 

The Catalyst: How Geopolitics Reshapes Trade and Oil Sector Exposure

Events beginning on February 28, 2026, triggered a rapid downturn in container shipping activity tied to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles significant flows of petrochemicals, fertilizers, metals, and agricultural commodities, in addition to refined petroleum products and natural gas.

Dun & Bradstreet maritime container booking data reveal the breadth of exposure: more than 44,000 businesses across 174 economies had at least one shipment exposed as of March 12. The highest concentrations of exposed entities are in China (11.66%), followed by the United Arab Emirates (10.77%), Saudi Arabia (6.51%), India (5.38%), and Pakistan (5.06%), with the top ten countries comprising about 55% of all affected businesses.
 

Quantifying Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Dun & Bradstreet shipping data paints a clear picture of the breakdown of global trade flow in the region. In the 7 days immediately before the start of the conflict (February 21-27), import bookings to the Persian Gulf region numbered 62,935 TEUs (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), declining 70% to 18,663 TEUs in the next seven days, and a total of 91% to 5395 TEUs between March 16 and March 22. Meanwhile, cancelled import bookings soared 463% in the wake of the conflict, jumping from 17,374 TEUs between February 21 and 27 to 97,897 TEUS between February 28 and March 6. Cancellations have declined since then but remain higher than booking volumes.

Export activity in the region mirrored this contraction, dropping more than 60% immediately from 20,804 TEUs from February 21 and 27 to 8,022 between February 28 and March 6, and dropping further to 1,320 TEUs between March 16 and March 22. Export cancellations also rose substantially, going from 2,732 TEUs between February 21 and 27, to 9,891 TEUs between February 28 and March 6.

There has been significant redirection to Saudi ports in the Red Sea, where import bookings increased 68% from 13,569 TEUs between February 21 and February 27 to 22,861 TEUs between March 16 and March 22. Similarly, export bookings volumes have increased 86%, from 10,396 TEUs between February 21 and February 27 to 19,323 TEUs between March 16 and March 22. While this volume is substantial in a local context, in combination with Omani volumes Dun & Bradstreet estimates between 50-60% of lost export volume is being covered by these alternatives – but only around 20% of lost import volume.

Vessels are increasingly diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to already strained transit times. By March 22, Dun & Bradstreet’s analysis identified 7,716 businesses that had experienced at least one shipment cancellation since February 28. Declining booking-to-cancellation ratios now serve as vital early warning indicators of supply chain distress and offer a valuable signal to decision-makers facing mounting volatility.
 

The Insurance Exodus Accelerating Supply Chain Paralysis

The sudden withdrawal of maritime insurance, a trend well-documented in supply chain intelligence, compounds the operational gridlock in the Gulf. War-risk insurers, responding to the escalated conflict, are rapidly suspending or cancelling coverage, or demanding prohibitive premiums. This move often precedes any physical route closure, rendering transits commercially nonviable no matter what legal navigation rights might exist.

Cargo operators – especially those in non-scheduled air transport, which relies on ad‑hoc, on‑demand flights with limited ability to hedge fuel exposure – face notable challenges, with high fuel price sensitivity and limited opportunity to hedge against soaring costs. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are also exerting upward pressure on global freight markets: major carriers have suspended transits and rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, driving up both tanker and container shipping costs well beyond the Gulf region. With insurance withdrawals and longer voyage times affecting global networks, elevated freight rates are likely to persist across multiple trade lanes as long as instability continues.
 

Decoding Oil Sector Exposure and Downstream Industrial Impacts

While movements in crude oil prices dominate immediate headlines, the second- and third-order consequences of the Strait of Hormuz disruption quickly permeate many other industries. Energy inputs sourced from the Gulf cascade into the cost structure of broad segments, from fertilizer and chemical producers to logistics and food supplies. For instance, nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing, plastics materials and resins, and industrial inorganic chemicals face direct cost inflation tied to oil and gas volatility. These dependencies are acute: the production of industrial inorganic chemicals requires significant energy; petrochemical feedstocks for plastics are entirely oil-derived; and the energy-intensive manufacturing of nitrogenous fertilizers ties operational costs tightly to oil and gas market movements.

The disruption is inflating costs across fundamental infrastructure and daily goods:

• Asphalt paving mixtures and construction materials are facing cost pressure because asphalt is an oil‑based product, meaning any rise in crude markets directly raises production and procurement costs.
• Cement and steel production (both highly energy‑ and logistics‑intensive) experience rising operational costs, as elevated fuel requirements and long‑distance freight movements materially increase expenses during periods of oil‑price volatility.
• Transportation sectors, from railroads and marine to trucking, experience sharp increases in diesel and bunker fuels. Trucking, where fuel can represent 35 - 40% of total operating costs, is especially vulnerable to such spikes.
• Food‑related supply chains, including meat packing and wholesale grocery distribution, face mounting costs tied to fuel, refrigeration, and logistics, raising processing expenses and creating inflationary pressure across food‑distribution networks.
   

Firmographic Vulnerabilities: Who Bears the Heaviest Burden?

Dun & Bradstreet tracks global supply chain impacts across company size, sector, and financial risk profiles. Wholesale trade leads among affected sectors, representing 27.49% of impacted businesses, followed by transportation services at 18.04%. Combined with food industries and non-classifiable establishments, these account for roughly 55% of impacted entities.

Dun & Bradstreet data shows small and micro-businesses (fewer than 50 employees) make up about 80% of all entities experiencing disruption. These firms often lack the resource buffers and alternative supply options of larger organizations, making them particularly susceptible to route closures and rising freight costs. In turn, interruptions at this tier quickly cascade into production delays for larger manufacturers dependent on specialized micro-suppliers, exposing the fragility of just-in-time manufacturing networks.

Supplier resilience increasingly depends on real-time integration of financial and operational signals, rather than historical indicators alone. Approximately 45% of affected entities fall into the most stable risk categories, and about 31% occupy mid-risk bands.
 

Strategic Approaches to Supply Chain Risk in a Disrupted Environment

Recent disruptions have shown that looking only at historical risk logs is not enough. Businesses need clearer views of what’s happening across their networks now, from sudden shifts in supplier activity to changes in customer stability. Using detailed analytics and tailored modeling, teams can examine where their exposure sits, which suppliers are most at risk, and where alternatives may be needed if a route or facility becomes unavailable.

The same data can flag financial strain earlier, allowing companies to revisit credit limits or customer terms before issues spread through the chain. Mapping risk across industries and countries also helps reveal where a disruption in one tier is likely to affect others. With this level of visibility, organizations can make more grounded decisions about sourcing, inventory, and contingency plans during a period when booking patterns and port access remain unpredictable.

Dun & Bradstreet is closely following these developments and remains committed to delivering timely, data-driven insights as the situation evolves. The Dun & Bradstreet D‑U‑N‑S^® Number continues to be recognized as the standard for linking firmographic data to real-time operational risk, offering vital supply chain transparency for organizations navigating uncertain waters.